2026 Senate · Democratic incumbent · Priority race

Virginia U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$6.1M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$5.9M

Democratic itemized total

$234K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

96%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 53% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

96%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 95% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +21.3±4.0

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

51.2D·32.8R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

2polls

Last fieldwork June 16, 2026

Polls in this average

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Topline	Margin
The Public Sentiment Institute	06-12 – 06-16	996 LV	Mark Warner (D) 51; Bert Mizusawa (R) 33; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 14	D +20.7
The Public Sentiment Institute(R)	05-01 – 05-05	1,047 LV	Mark Warner (D) 55; Bert Mizusawa (R) 29; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 14	D +29.9

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

DemocraticDEM · Incumbent
Mark Robert Warner
$5.9M
Donors
7,823
Small-$ share
23%
In-state
41%
PAC $
$2.3M
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Bert K Mizusawa
$99K
Donors
104
Small-$ share
6%
In-state
42%
PAC $
$500
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
David Earl Williams
$44K
Donors
45
Small-$ share
3%
In-state
79%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Bryce Reeves
$37K
Donors
44
Small-$ share
2%
In-state
79%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Kim Farington
$29K
Donors
26
Small-$ share
3%
In-state
30%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
C.L. Chuck Smith Jr.
$25K
Donors
29
Small-$ share
2%
In-state
47%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Lorita Daniels
$5K
Donors
6
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
85%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Gregory Eichelberger
$250
Donors
1
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
0%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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