2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

Texas U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$42M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$32M

Democratic itemized total

$10M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

53%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 43% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

92%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 87% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +2.8±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

48.5D·45.8R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

68polls

Last fieldwork October 30, 2026

Polls in this average

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Topline	Margin
KStrat	10-27 – 10-30	900 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 6	D +3.2
Quantus Insights	10-26 – 10-28	1,221 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 48; Ted Brown (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 2	R +1.0
ActiVote	10-22 – 10-28	400 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 52	D +4.0
A2 Insights	10-23 – 10-27	631 LV	James Talarico (D) 50.2; Ken Paxton (R) 47.2; Undecided (UND) 2.6	D +3.1
CNN / SSRS	10-20 – 10-27	923 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 49; Other (OTH) 8	D +6.0
Data for Progress(D)	10-23 – 10-26	712 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 49; Ted Brown (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4	D +4.2
YouGov(D)	10-21 – 10-26	1,000 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 51; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5	D +8.3
Texas Southern University	10-21 – 10-25	2,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 47; James Talarico (D) 49; Ted Brown (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 1	D +2.0
Univision / YouGov	10-13 – 10-21	1,000 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5	D +5.2
Rasmussen Reports	10-20 – 10-21	965 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 45; Ted Brown (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 5	Even
ActiVote	10-17 – 10-21	400 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 51	D +2.0
VoteHub/Verasight	10-01 – 10-20	601 LV	James Talarico (D) 47.6; Ken Paxton (R) 45.2; Other (OTH) 1.4; Undecided (UND) 5.8	D +2.5
Verasight	10-01 – 10-20	509 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 48; Ted Brown (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 6	D +3.2
Emerson College	10-17 – 10-19	1,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 49; Ted Brown (OTH) 3	D +1.0
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research	10-15 – 10-19	1,398 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 49; Undecided (UND) 2	Even
Texas Public Opinion Research	10-15 – 10-18	969 LV	James Talarico (D) 51; Ken Paxton (R) 47	D +4.1
Pollfinity Research	10-15 – 10-18	278 LV	James Talarico (D) 48; Ken Paxton (R) 43; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7	D +5.4
YouGov	10-08 – 10-16	1,492 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 51	D +2.0
Cor Strategies(R)	10-10 – 10-15	1,409 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 40; James Talarico (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 16	D +4.8
University of Houston / Texas Southern University	10-10 – 10-14	2,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3	D +2.1
InsiderAdvantage(R)	10-13 – 10-14	1,200 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 48	R +1.0
ActiVote	09-30 – 10-14	400 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 52	D +4.0
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group	10-09 – 10-13	934 LV	James Talarico (D) 49; Ken Paxton (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 7	D +5.4
Marist College	10-08 – 10-11	— LV	James Talarico (D) 47; Ken Paxton (R) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4	D +2.1
Quantus Insights	10-09 – 10-11	854 LV	James Talarico (D) 46.7; Ken Paxton (R) 47.2; Other (OTH) 2.2; Undecided (UND) 3.9	R +0.5
Trafalgar Group(R)	10-06 – 10-08	1,086 LV	James Talarico (D) 47.1; Ken Paxton (R) 43.6; Other (OTH) 1.8; Undecided (UND) 7.6	D +3.8
Siena College	10-05 – 10-08	617 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 5	D +4.2
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project	09-25 – 10-05	861 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 47; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 3	D +3.0
YouGov	09-28 – 10-05	3,625 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 3	D +6.2
Siena College(R)	09-21 – 09-30	615 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 51; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 4	D +6.2
Rasmussen Reports(R)	09-28 – 09-29	1,128 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 46; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 5	D +1.1
UMass Amherst / YouGov	09-18 – 09-28	850 LV	James Talarico (D) 45; Ken Paxton (R) 45; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7	Even
Guidant Polling & Strategy	09-20 – 09-28	800 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 5	D +3.2
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research	09-24 – 09-28	881 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 51; Undecided (UND) 1	D +2.0
Pulse Decision Science	09-24 – 09-27	800 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 4	R +3.2
Big Data Poll	09-24 – 09-26	698 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 8	D +2.0
Stratus Intelligence(D)	09-22 – 09-24	856 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 4	Even
Texas Public Opinion Research(D)	09-19 – 09-22	1,007 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 49; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 3	D +5.2
Marist College	09-17 – 09-20	1,139 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4	D +6.2
Texas Southern University	09-15 – 09-19	1,800 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4	D +1.0
Trafalgar Group(R)	09-15 – 09-17	1,079 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 46; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 6	D +1.1
Emerson College	09-12 – 09-14	1,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4	D +1.1
Siena College	09-08 – 09-11	614 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 49; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 4	D +6.2
Mason-Dixon	09-08 – 09-10	625 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 46; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 8	D +3.3
InsiderAdvantage	09-08 – 09-09	1,200 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5	D +1.1
Univision / YouGov	08-27 – 09-04	1,000 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 7	D +5.4
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	08-30 – 09-01	895 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 8	D +4.3
Overton Insights(R)	08-24 – 08-26	1,167 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 50; James Talarico (D) 50	Even
Texas Public Opinion Research(D)	08-21 – 08-24	1,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 42; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7	D +6.5
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project	08-05 – 08-13	1,200 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 39; James Talarico (D) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 14	D +3.5
Emerson College	08-09 – 08-10	1,000 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 47; James Talarico (D) 46; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5	R +1.1
YouGov(D)	07-15 – 07-31	1,001 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 6	D +3.2
Texas Southern University	07-27 – 07-30	1,200 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6	D +2.1
Siena College	07-27 – 07-30	619 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 6	D +4.3
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research	07-23 – 07-27	1,005 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 51; Undecided (UND) 3	D +3.0
Texas Public Opinion Research(D)	07-15 – 07-17	1,048 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 40; James Talarico (D) 45; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 14	D +5.8
A2 Insights	06-23 – 06-28	618 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3	D +2.1
Siena College	06-19 – 06-27	656 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 47; James Talarico (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 6	Even
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project	06-05 – 06-12	1,200 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 42; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 10	R +1.1
Siena College	06-01 – 06-04	807 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 46; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 5	Even
Quantus Insights	06-03 – 06-04	800 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 43; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 7	R +2.2
Texas Public Opinion Research(D)	05-27 – 05-28	1,670 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 47; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7	D +3.2
Public Policy Polling(D)	05-22 – 05-23	643 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 38; James Talarico (D) 45; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 14	D +8.1
Texas Southern University	04-22 – 05-06	1,223 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 8	Even
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project	04-10 – 04-20	1,200 RV	Ken Paxton (R) 34; James Talarico (D) 42; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 19	D +9.9
Texas Public Opinion Research(D)	04-17 – 04-20	1,018 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 41; James Talarico (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 9	D +5.7
Impact Research(D)	03-12 – 03-17	900 LV	Ken Paxton (R) 43; James Talarico (D) 44; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 7	D +1.1
Public Policy Polling(D)	03-04 – 03-05	576 V	Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 8	D +2.2

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

DemocraticDEM · Challenger
James Talarico
$28M
Donors
50,569
Small-$ share
27%
In-state
55%
PAC $
$389K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr.
$7.1M
Donors
4,898
Small-$ share
9%
In-state
82%
PAC $
$387K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Colin Allred
$2.7M
Donors
3,845
Small-$ share
21%
In-state
51%
PAC $
$3.1M
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Incumbent
John Sen Cornyn
$2.4M
Donors
2,970
Small-$ share
5%
In-state
47%
PAC $
$2.0M
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Jasmine Crockett
$1.2M
Donors
3,878
Small-$ share
29%
In-state
32%
PAC $
$51K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Wesley Hunt
$591K
Donors
1,314
Small-$ share
51%
In-state
46%
PAC $
−$4K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Terry Virts
$311K
Donors
280
Small-$ share
3%
In-state
35%
PAC $
$10K
Follow the money →
Independent or third partyLIB
Daniel M Sims
$6K
Donors
4
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
78%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
Independent or third partyLIB · Challenger
Theodore E. Brown Jr.
$4K
Donors
9
Small-$ share
3%
In-state
38%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Virgil Bierschwale
$1K
Donors
4
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
—
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Sara Larue Canady
$500
Donors
1
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Michael Swanson
$450
Donors
2
Small-$ share
44%
In-state
0%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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