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2026 Senate · Republican incumbent

South Dakota U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$1.8M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

4

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$135K

Democratic itemized total

$1.3M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

7%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 35% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

1%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 5% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +9.0±7.9

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

41.3D·49.7R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

11polls

Last fieldwork October 26, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Concord Public Opinion Partners10-22 – 10-26448 LVMike Rounds (R) 41; Brian Bengs (I) 43; Other (OTH) 9; Undecided (UND) 6D +2.2
Emerson College10-19 – 10-20803 LVMike Rounds (R) 50; Brian Bengs (I) 42; Undecided (UND) 8R +8.7
Quantus Insights(R)10-17 – 10-19633 LVMike Rounds (R) 57; Brian Bengs (I) 37; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5R +20.8
Mason-Dixon10-12 – 10-14500 LVMike Rounds (R) 56; Brian Bengs (I) 37; Undecided (UND) 7R +20.4
Concord Public Opinion Partners(D)10-06 – 10-08400 LVMike Rounds (R) 42; Brian Bengs (I) 43; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 10D +1.1
Zenith Research09-24 – 09-27500 LVMike Rounds (R) 53; Brian Bengs (I) 47R +6.0
Public Policy Polling(D)09-08 – 09-09629 RVMike Rounds (R) 45; Brian Bengs (I) 42; Undecided (UND) 13R +3.4
Lake Research Partners08-26 – 08-30500 LVMike Rounds (R) 44; Brian Bengs (I) 51; Undecided (UND) 5D +7.4
Impact Research(D)08-13 – 08-17500 LVMike Rounds (R) 44; Brian Bengs (I) 44; Undecided (UND) 12Even
Public Opinion Strategies(R)07-06 – 07-09500 LVMike Rounds (R) 56; Brian Bengs (I) 33; Undecided (UND) 11R +25.8
Public Policy Polling(D)05-29 – 05-30726 RVMike Rounds (R) 44; Brian Bengs (I) 40; Undecided (UND) 16R +4.8

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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