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2026 Senate · Democratic incumbent

New Mexico U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$1.6M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

3

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$1.6M

Democratic itemized total

$75K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

96%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 53% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

98%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 98% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +18.2±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

53.2D·36.8R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

3polls

Last fieldwork October 9, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Research & Polling Inc.10-01 – 10-091,125 LVBen Ray Luján (D) 53; Larry Marker (R) 37; Undecided (UND) 10D +17.8
SurveyUSA(R)09-25 – 09-30567 LVBen Ray Luján (D) 54; Larry Marker (R) 36; Undecided (UND) 10D +20.0
Research & Polling Inc.08-21 – 08-28516 LVBen Ray Luján (D) 53; Larry Marker (R) 38; Undecided (UND) 9D +16.5

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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