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2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$12M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

6

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$9.0M

Democratic itemized total

$2.7M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

74%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 51% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

88%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 81% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +6.8±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

49.2D·42.7R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

22polls

Last fieldwork October 23, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Rasmussen Reports(R)10-20 – 10-23970 LVChris Pappas (D) 50; John E. Sununu (R) 44; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 2D +6.1
Saint Anselm College10-19 – 10-201,672 LVChris Pappas (D) 50; John E. Sununu (R) 43; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 2D +7.1
UMass Amherst / YouGov10-02 – 10-19600 LVChris Pappas (D) 48; John E. Sununu (R) 41; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 7D +7.5
National Public Affairs(R)10-08 – 10-12600 LVChris Pappas (D) 50; John E. Sununu (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
YouGov09-28 – 10-051,520 LVChris Pappas (D) 51; John E. Sununu (R) 43; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 4D +8.4
Rasmussen Reports(R)10-02 – 10-04979 LVChris Pappas (D) 49; John E. Sununu (R) 44; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4D +5.2
Saint Anselm College09-28 – 09-291,042 LVChris Pappas (D) 51; John E. Sununu (R) 44; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 1D +7.1
Trafalgar Group(R)09-26 – 09-271,082 LVChris Pappas (D) 47; John E. Sununu (R) 41; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 11D +6.7
Siena College09-15 – 09-22613 LVChris Pappas (D) 50; John E. Sununu (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
University of New Hampshire09-17 – 09-211,418 LVChris Pappas (D) 50; John E. Sununu (R) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 4D +8.3
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-16 – 09-181,200 LVChris Pappas (D) 48; John E. Sununu (R) 40; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 9D +8.8
co/efficient(R)09-09 – 09-11958 LVChris Pappas (D) 46; John E. Sununu (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 9Even
Rasmussen Reports(R)09-08 – 09-101,000 LVChris Pappas (D) 45; John E. Sununu (R) 34; Other (OTH) 13; Undecided (UND) 9D +12.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates(R)08-27 – 08-30600 LVChris Pappas (D) 36; John E. Sununu (R) 37; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 23R +1.3
University of New Hampshire08-20 – 08-241,878 LVChris Pappas (D) 43; John E. Sununu (R) 45; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 7R +2.2
Saint Anselm College08-17 – 08-181,411 LVChris Pappas (D) 48; John E. Sununu (R) 41; Undecided (UND) 11D +7.9
Peak Insights(R)06-24 – 06-27500 LVChris Pappas (D) 43; John E. Sununu (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 15D +1.2
Saint Anselm College06-24 – 06-251,614 RVChris Pappas (D) 47; John E. Sununu (R) 41; Undecided (UND) 12D +6.8
University of New Hampshire06-18 – 06-232,232 LVChris Pappas (D) 47; John E. Sununu (R) 44; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7D +3.2
University of New Hampshire04-17 – 04-211,295 LVChris Pappas (D) 49; John E. Sununu (R) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 6D +7.4
Emerson College03-21 – 03-231,000 LVChris Pappas (D) 45; John E. Sununu (R) 44; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 6D +1.1
Saint Anselm College03-16 – 03-181,491 RVChris Pappas (D) 46; John E. Sununu (R) 43; Undecided (UND) 11D +3.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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