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2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

North Carolina U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$14M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

8

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$8.4M

Democratic itemized total

$5.3M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

67%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 48% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

85%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 78% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +11.6±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

51.8D·40.8R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

40polls

Last fieldwork October 25, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Quantus Insights10-24 – 10-25722 LVRoy Cooper (D) 51.4; Michael Whatley (R) 42.8; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 3.8D +8.9
High Point University10-01 – 10-20620 LVRoy Cooper (D) 54; Michael Whatley (R) 40; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3D +14.4
Harper Polling10-18 – 10-20600 LVRoy Cooper (D) 49; Michael Whatley (R) 39; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 7D +10.8
ActiVote10-08 – 10-20400 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 57D +14.0
SurveyUSA10-07 – 10-11643 LVRoy Cooper (D) 54; Michael Whatley (R) 40; Undecided (UND) 6D +14.9
Trafalgar Group(R)10-08 – 10-101,091 LVRoy Cooper (D) 48.8; Michael Whatley (R) 40.9; Other (OTH) 3.4; Undecided (UND) 6.9D +8.5
Elon University / YouGov09-29 – 10-08561 LVRoy Cooper (D) 52; Michael Whatley (R) 39; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 6D +13.8
Change Research(D)10-01 – 10-07829 LVRoy Cooper (D) 50; Michael Whatley (R) 40; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7D +10.8
East Carolina University09-30 – 10-03810 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +7.4
Big Data Poll09-27 – 09-29642 LVMichael Whatley (R) 35; Roy Cooper (D) 47; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 12D +13.8
Quantus Insights(R)09-21 – 09-22686 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 4D +5.2
Harper Polling(R)09-18 – 09-20608 LVMichael Whatley (R) 39; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 7D +10.8
Opinion Diagnostics09-17 – 09-20857 LVMichael Whatley (R) 41; Roy Cooper (D) 51; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5D +10.6
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates09-17 – 09-201,806 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 53; Undecided (UND) 5D +11.6
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-16 – 09-181,200 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 6D +5.3
YouGov09-15 – 09-183,742 LVMichael Whatley (R) 41; Roy Cooper (D) 53; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 4D +12.6
High Point University09-09 – 09-16706 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 5D +8.4
YouGov09-04 – 09-15885 LVMichael Whatley (R) 35; Roy Cooper (D) 47; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 13D +13.8
Harper Polling(R)09-13 – 09-15608 LVMichael Whatley (R) 34; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 12D +17.0
Trafalgar Group(R)09-08 – 09-101,084 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7D +6.5
East Carolina University08-31 – 09-03675 LVMichael Whatley (R) 39; Roy Cooper (D) 46; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 14D +8.0
Elon University / YouGov08-21 – 08-31565 LVMichael Whatley (R) 38; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 8D +12.1
High Point University08-03 – 08-12660 LVMichael Whatley (R) 45; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3D +5.1
Harper Polling(R)08-09 – 08-10600 LVMichael Whatley (R) 39; Roy Cooper (D) 52; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 5D +13.5
Change Research(D)08-03 – 08-06915 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 7D +7.5
Change Research(D)07-29 – 08-01967 VMichael Whatley (R) 41; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 9D +9.9
Elon University / YouGov07-23 – 07-31466 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 53; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 2D +11.2
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research07-23 – 07-271,005 RVMichael Whatley (R) 44; Roy Cooper (D) 53; Undecided (UND) 3D +9.3
Public Policy Polling(D)07-10 – 07-11759 LVMichael Whatley (R) 44; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 8D +4.3
Siena College06-15 – 06-27601 LVMichael Whatley (R) 43; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 6D +7.5
YouGov06-01 – 06-10905 LVMichael Whatley (R) 34; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 18D +17.1
Harper Polling(R)05-10 – 05-11600 LVMichael Whatley (R) 39; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 11D +12.4
Change Research(D)05-04 – 05-08957 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Undecided (UND) 9D +7.7
Opinion Diagnostics(R)04-21 – 04-24830 VMichael Whatley (R) 41; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 9D +9.9
High Point University03-26 – 04-06703 LVMichael Whatley (R) 42; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +8.5
Quantus Insights(R)03-31 – 04-01987 LVMichael Whatley (R) 44; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +5.3
Harper Polling(R)03-22 – 03-23600 LVMichael Whatley (R) 41; Roy Cooper (D) 49; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 6D +8.5
YouGov03-09 – 03-181,000 LVMichael Whatley (R) 34; Roy Cooper (D) 48; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 14D +16.3
Public Policy Polling(D)03-13 – 03-14556 VMichael Whatley (R) 44; Roy Cooper (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 9D +3.3
Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions03-08 – 03-09800 RVMichael Whatley (R) 32; Roy Cooper (D) 50; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 14D +20.9

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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