2026 Senate · Republican incumbent · Priority race

Montana U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$4.0M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$89K

Democratic itemized total

$1.2M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

11%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 40% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

1%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 6% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +21.5±8.4

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

19.6D·38.9R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

17polls

Last fieldwork October 23, 2026

Polls in this average

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Topline	Margin
Concord Public Opinion Partners	10-22 – 10-23	410 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 38; Alani Bankhead (D) 10; Other (OTH) 41; Undecided (UND) 11	R +31.5
Montana State University Billings	10-05 – 10-21	720 Adults	Kurt Alme (R) 30; Alani Bankhead (D) 26; Other (OTH) 24; Undecided (UND) 20	R +5.0
Quantus Insights	10-15 – 10-18	686 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 46; Alani Bankhead (D) 29; Other (OTH) 23; Undecided (UND) 2	R +17.3
Peak Insights(R)	10-07 – 10-12	500 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 44; Alani Bankhead (D) 12; Other (OTH) 32; Undecided (UND) 12	R +36.4
Concord Public Opinion Partners	10-06 – 10-08	405 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 35; Alani Bankhead (D) 13; Other (OTH) 38; Undecided (UND) 13	R +25.6
American Pulse Research & Polling	09-19 – 09-24	604 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 45; Alani Bankhead (D) 19; Other (OTH) 26; Undecided (UND) 10	R +28.9
Aspect Strategic	09-07 – 09-15	715 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 44; Alani Bankhead (D) 14; Seth Bodnar (I) 32; Kyle Austin (L) 3; Undecided (UND) 7	R +32.3
Quantus Insights(R)	09-14 – 09-15	625 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 44; Alani Bankhead (D) 23; Seth Bodnar (I) 24; Undecided (UND) 9	R +23.1
Rutgers-Eagleton	08-27 – 09-07	845 RV	Kurt Alme (R) 38; Alani Bankhead (D) 16; Seth Bodnar (I) 30; Kyle Austin (L) 5; Undecided (UND) 11	R +24.7
Peak Insights(R)	08-23 – 08-25	600 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 44; Alani Bankhead (D) 19; Seth Bodnar (I) 22; Kyle Austin (L) 2; Undecided (UND) 13	R +28.7
Hart Research Associates(D)	08-01 – 08-04	800 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 45; Alani Bankhead (D) 15; Seth Bodnar (I) 30; Kyle Austin (L) 6; Undecided (UND) 4	R +31.2
Tavern Research(D)	07-23 – 07-27	517 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 49; Alani Bankhead (D) 24; Seth Bodnar (I) 25; Kyle Austin (L) 2	R +25.0
GQR(D)	07-23 – 07-26	500 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 41; Alani Bankhead (D) 22; Seth Bodnar (I) 27; Kyle Austin (L) 6; Undecided (UND) 4	R +19.8
The Bullfinch Group(R)	07-13 – 07-16	793 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 36; Alani Bankhead (D) 22; Seth Bodnar (I) 24; Undecided (UND) 18	R +17.1
Hart Research Associates(D)	06-18 – 06-24	800 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 47; Alani Bankhead (D) 22; Seth Bodnar (I) 25; Undecided (UND) 6	R +26.6
Tavern Research(D)	06-16 – 06-19	400 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 49; Alani Bankhead (D) 26; Seth Bodnar (I) 24; Kyle Austin (L) 2	R +22.8
Public Opinion Strategies(R)	06-08 – 06-11	500 LV	Kurt Alme (R) 44; Alani Bankhead (D) 25; Seth Bodnar (I) 20; Kyle Austin (L) 4; Undecided (UND) 7	R +20.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Independent or third partyIND · Open seat
Seth Bodnar
$2.7M
Donors
1,563
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
33%
PAC $
$122K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Kurt Alme
$927K
Donors
492
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
46%
PAC $
$823K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Incumbent
Steve Daines
$281K
Donors
1,145
Small-$ share
20%
In-state
32%
PAC $
$902K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Reilly Neill
$59K
Donors
98
Small-$ share
17%
In-state
55%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Alani Ines Bankhead
$27K
Donors
39
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
42%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Michael James Blackwolf
$2K
Donors
5
Small-$ share
5%
In-state
53%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Michael Hummert
$1K
Donors
1
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
0%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
Independent or third partyLIB · Open seat
Kyle Austin
$526
Donors
1
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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