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2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

Minnesota U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$15M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

9

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$11M

Democratic itemized total

$3.4M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

76%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 52% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

38%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 52% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +6.7±2.9

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

48.6D·42.3R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

19polls

Last fieldwork October 28, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
SurveyUSA10-24 – 10-28714 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 41; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 7D +7.5
Siena College10-19 – 10-26752 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 54; Michele Tafoya (R) 40; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 5D +14.9
Victory Insights(R)10-21 – 10-221,194 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 44; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +4.3
Rasmussen Reports(R)10-20 – 10-211,182 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 7D +3.2
Trafalgar Group(R)10-13 – 10-151,079 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5D +3.2
SurveyUSA10-08 – 10-12718 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 45; Michele Tafoya (R) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 9D +3.3
Mason-Dixon10-05 – 10-07800 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 47; Michele Tafoya (R) 43; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 9D +4.4
Rasmussen Reports(D)10-05 – 10-07856 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 7D +3.2
Morning Consult(D)10-02 – 10-071,000 RVPeggy Flanagan (D) 45; Michele Tafoya (R) 41; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 12D +4.5
GQR10-01 – 10-04800 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 53; Michele Tafoya (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 3D +9.3
Big Data Poll09-29 – 09-30622 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 40; Michele Tafoya (R) 38; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 15D +2.4
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-28 – 09-291,200 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 46; Michele Tafoya (R) 45; Marisa Simonetti (I) 1; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +1.1
co/efficient(R)09-14 – 09-15833 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 43; Michele Tafoya (R) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 11D +1.1
SurveyUSA09-09 – 09-14654 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 42; Michele Tafoya (R) 42; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 12Even
Quantus Insights(R)09-08 – 09-10720 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 48; Michele Tafoya (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 7D +4.3
TIPP Insights(R)08-31 – 09-021,201 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 44; Michele Tafoya (R) 42; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 8D +2.2
Deep Root Analytics(R)08-17 – 08-18597 RVPeggy Flanagan (D) 50; Michele Tafoya (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
SurveyUSA08-13 – 08-17661 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 46; Michele Tafoya (R) 41; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 11D +5.6
Impact Research(D)05-26 – 05-28808 LVPeggy Flanagan (D) 51; Michele Tafoya (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 7D +7.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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