Skip to content
WhoDonated
Contact

2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

Michigan U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$28M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

9

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$24M

Democratic itemized total

$4.5M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

69%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 49% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

74%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 70% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +4.5±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

48.6D·44.3R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

54polls

Last fieldwork October 29, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Rasmussen Reports(R)10-28 – 10-29745 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4D +5.2
Upswing Research(D)10-24 – 10-28505 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
CNN / SSRS10-20 – 10-27768 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Other (OTH) 8; Undecided (UND) 1D +7.1
Mitchell Research10-26 – 10-27636 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 51; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 3D +7.2
Michigan State University10-08 – 10-231,383 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50.5; Mike Rogers (R) 43.1; Undecided (UND) 6.4D +7.9
RedBox Research10-20 – 10-232,696 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 3D +5.2
Glengariff Group10-19 – 10-22600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 51; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 4D +6.2
InsiderAdvantage10-21 – 10-221,200 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 7D +1.1
YouGov10-02 – 10-19836 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 45.5; Undecided (UND) 6.5D +2.7
Marist College10-15 – 10-18— LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 48; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 2D +2.0
Rasmussen Reports(R)10-12 – 10-14798 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 5D +2.1
InsiderAdvantage10-09 – 10-101,200 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 6D +2.1
Tyson Group10-06 – 10-08600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 44; Mike Rogers (R) 46R +2.2
Quantus Insights10-05 – 10-06762 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 47; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4D +1.0
YouGov(D)09-22 – 10-043,949 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 48; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 2D +1.0
Z to A Research09-28 – 10-01483 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3D +7.4
Mitchell Research2026-10-01682 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46; Mike Rogers (R) 41; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 6D +5.3
Trafalgar Group(R)09-28 – 09-301,085 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46.9; Mike Rogers (R) 45.1; Other (OTH) 2.9; Undecided (UND) 5D +1.9
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research(R)09-24 – 09-281,028 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 49; Undecided (UND) 1D +1.0
Tyson Group(R)09-24 – 09-27600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 44; Mike Rogers (R) 43; Undecided (UND) 13D +1.1
Guidant Polling & Strategy09-20 – 09-27800 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 43; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7D +5.4
Marist College09-24 – 09-271,235 RVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 51; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 3D +7.3
Big Data Poll(R)09-22 – 09-24678 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 11D +5.6
co/efficient(R)09-21 – 09-23843 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 8Even
GBAO09-19 – 09-22800 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 8D +4.3
Siena College09-15 – 09-22605 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 7D +5.4
Cygnal09-18 – 09-21600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 40; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 13D +5.8
Suffolk University09-16 – 09-20500 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 40; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 8D +7.8
Torchlight Strategies(R)09-15 – 09-19643 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 43; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 9R +1.1
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-16 – 09-181,200 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 5D +2.1
The Washington Post09-10 – 09-14803 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 2D +3.1
Emerson College09-12 – 09-141,000 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4D +2.1
Trafalgar Group(R)09-07 – 09-091,079 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7D +1.1
CNN / SSRS08-31 – 09-06843 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 8D +3.0
Glengariff Group08-31 – 09-03600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 44; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 9R +2.2
EPIC-MRA08-22 – 08-28600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
Abacus Data08-26 – 08-28332 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 49; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Other (OTH) 6D +4.0
YouGov08-10 – 08-20779 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +5.3
Susquehanna Polling & Research(R)08-11 – 08-17800 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46; Mike Rogers (R) 39; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 9D +7.7
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates08-09 – 08-11877 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 48; Mike Rogers (R) 47; Undecided (UND) 5D +1.1
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research08-06 – 08-101,006 RVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 51; Undecided (UND) 2R +4.1
GBAO(D)08-06 – 08-10800 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 50; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 6D +6.4
TIPP Insights(R)08-06 – 08-101,215 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 6D +3.2
EPIC-MRA07-24 – 07-31600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 43; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 11R +3.4
Mitchell Research07-28 – 07-29672 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 10Even
Glengariff Group07-22 – 07-24600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 39; Mike Rogers (R) 49; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 11R +11.2
Quantus Insights(R)06-29 – 06-30947 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 44; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 8D +1.1
Data for Progress(D)06-15 – 06-22709 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 7D +1.1
Zenith Research(D)06-11 – 06-14602 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 45; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 13D +3.4
Mitchell Research06-11 – 06-13827 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 47; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 11D +5.6
Tulchin Research(D)06-02 – 06-04500 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 46; Mike Rogers (R) 41; Undecided (UND) 13D +5.7
TIPP Insights(R)05-20 – 05-231,163 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 43; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 9D +1.1
Mitchell Research05-01 – 05-07607 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 41; Mike Rogers (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 17R +1.2
Glengariff Group04-28 – 05-01600 LVAbdul El-Sayed (D) 39.8; Mike Rogers (R) 44.7; Undecided (UND) 15.5R +5.8

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

← All 2026 racesMethodologyCandidates