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2026 Senate · Open seat · Priority race

Massachusetts U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$7.5M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

7

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$6.6M

Democratic itemized total

$396K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

91%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 63% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

87%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 80% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +30.4±2.8

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

55.9D·28.6R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

10polls

Last fieldwork October 18, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
UMass Amherst / YouGov10-07 – 10-18850 LVEd Markey (D) 55; John Deaton (R) 26; Shiva Ayyadurai (I) 1; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 12D +34.1
Suffolk University10-14 – 10-18500 LVEd Markey (D) 60; John Deaton (R) 32; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6D +29.8
UMass Amherst / YouGov10-05 – 10-12800 RVEd Markey (D) 56; John Deaton (R) 29; Other (OTH) 11; Undecided (UND) 4D +28.1
WBUR / MassINC09-14 – 09-22800 LVEd Markey (D) 52; John Deaton (R) 26; Other (OTH) 8; Undecided (UND) 14D +30.2
University of New Hampshire09-17 – 09-21564 LVEd Markey (D) 53; John Deaton (R) 30; Joe Tache (OTH) 9; Undecided (UND) 8D +25.0
University of New Hampshire08-20 – 08-24881 LVEd Markey (D) 49; John Deaton (R) 30; Joe Tache (OTH) 7; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 12D +21.8
UMass Amherst / YouGov08-05 – 08-12800 RVEd Markey (D) 51; John Deaton (R) 30; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 15D +25.0
University of New Hampshire06-18 – 06-23623 LVEd Markey (D) 50; John Deaton (R) 34; Undecided (UND) 16D +19.0
Suffolk University06-08 – 06-12500 LVEd Markey (D) 55; John Deaton (R) 30; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 14D +29.1
University of New Hampshire04-16 – 04-20603 LVEd Markey (D) 55; John Deaton (R) 32; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 12D +26.1

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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