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2026 Senate · Republican incumbent · Priority race

Kansas U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$5.5M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

10

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$4.0M

Democratic itemized total

$1.5M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

14%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 42% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

85%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 78% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +2.8±2.4

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

48.0D·45.3R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

16polls

Last fieldwork October 28, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Emerson College10-26 – 10-28800 LVRoger Marshall (R) 47; Adam Hamilton (D) 50; David Graham (OTH) 3D +3.0
The Washington Post10-22 – 10-26801 LVRoger Marshall (R) 43; Adam Hamilton (D) 52; David Graham (OTH) 4D +9.1
CNN / SSRS10-20 – 10-26838 LVRoger Marshall (R) 45; Adam Hamilton (D) 49; Other (OTH) 5D +4.0
RedBox Research10-20 – 10-231,301 LVRoger Marshall (R) 46; Adam Hamilton (D) 45; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 4R +1.0
InsiderAdvantage(R)10-13 – 10-141,200 LVRoger Marshall (R) 48; Adam Hamilton (D) 47; David Graham (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 2R +1.0
InsiderAdvantage10-09 – 10-101,200 LVRoger Marshall (R) 47; Adam Hamilton (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 5D +1.1
YouGov09-24 – 10-042,255 LVRoger Marshall (R) 45; Adam Hamilton (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 5D +3.2
GBAO(D)09-30 – 10-04600 LVRoger Marshall (R) 41; Adam Hamilton (D) 46; David Graham (OTH) 7D +5.3
Trafalgar Group09-29 – 10-011,095 LVRoger Marshall (R) 44; Adam Hamilton (D) 44; David Graham (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 10Even
Siena College09-22 – 09-30605 LVRoger Marshall (R) 45; Adam Hamilton (D) 45; David Graham (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 6Even
Global Strategy Group09-13 – 09-16800 LVRoger Marshall (R) 47; Adam Hamilton (D) 49D +2.1
Emerson College09-15 – 09-16750 LVRoger Marshall (R) 43; Adam Hamilton (D) 45; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 8D +2.2
co/efficient(R)09-08 – 09-10915 LVRoger Marshall (R) 49; Adam Hamilton (D) 44; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5R +5.3
Global Strategy Group(D)08-12 – 08-16800 LVRoger Marshall (R) 43; Adam Hamilton (D) 44; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 8D +1.1
Public Policy Polling(D)08-07 – 08-08569 LVRoger Marshall (R) 46; Adam Hamilton (D) 45R +1.1
GBAO(D)07-08 – 07-13600 LVRoger Marshall (R) 47; Adam Hamilton (D) 43; Undecided (UND) 10R +4.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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