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2026 Senate · Open seat

Iowa U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$4.1M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

7

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$3.8M

Democratic itemized total

$301K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

54%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 43% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

61%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 63% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

Even±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

45.7D·45.7R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

35polls

Last fieldwork October 28, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
co/efficient(R)2026-10-281,020 LVAshley Hinson (R) 48; Josh Turek (D) 46; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5R +2.1
Echelon Insights10-16 – 10-23403 LVJosh Turek (D) 45; Ashley Hinson (R) 43; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 5D +2.1
InsiderAdvantage10-21 – 10-221,200 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 8R +2.2
co/efficient(R)10-15 – 10-19863 LVAshley Hinson (R) 48; Josh Turek (D) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6R +3.2
Trafalgar Group(R)10-13 – 10-151,094 LVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 44; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 6R +2.1
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group10-09 – 10-13602 LVAshley Hinson (R) 44; Josh Turek (D) 46; Other (OTH) 8; Undecided (UND) 2D +2.0
NPA Polling10-08 – 10-12678 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 44; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 5R +3.2
YouGov10-06 – 10-122,245 LVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 47; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4D +1.1
Marist College10-08 – 10-11— LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4D +3.1
Emerson College10-05 – 10-06650 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7R +2.1
CNN / SSRS09-29 – 10-05801 LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 43; Other (OTH) 11R +2.0
Suffolk University10-01 – 10-04500 LVAshley Hinson (R) 43.6; Josh Turek (D) 48; Other (OTH) 2.2; Undecided (UND) 5.6D +4.7
Siena College09-22 – 10-01606 LVAshley Hinson (R) 48; Josh Turek (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 5R +1.1
Rasmussen Reports(D)09-28 – 09-301,048 LVAshley Hinson (R) 43; Josh Turek (D) 47; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7D +4.3
Quantus Insights09-28 – 09-29738 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 46; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5R +1.1
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research09-24 – 09-281,008 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 49; Undecided (UND) 4D +2.1
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-22 – 09-231,200 LVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 47; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4D +1.0
Marist College09-17 – 09-201,050 RVAshley Hinson (R) 42; Josh Turek (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5D +8.5
Trafalgar Group(R)09-16 – 09-181,089 LVAshley Hinson (R) 44; Josh Turek (D) 42; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 10R +2.2
co/efficient(R)09-14 – 09-16831 LVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 42; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 9R +4.4
Cygnal(R)09-09 – 09-11500 LVAshley Hinson (R) 43; Josh Turek (D) 43; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 10Even
Rasmussen Reports(R)09-08 – 09-101,031 LVAshley Hinson (R) 40; Josh Turek (D) 45; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 11D +5.6
YouGov09-03 – 09-082,041 LVAshley Hinson (R) 43; Josh Turek (D) 47; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 8D +4.4
Emerson College08-31 – 09-01750 LVAshley Hinson (R) 50; Josh Turek (D) 45; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5R +5.2
Global Strategy Group(D)08-27 – 08-31800 LVAshley Hinson (R) 42; Josh Turek (D) 46; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 6D +4.3
Abacus Data08-26 – 08-28323 LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 54; Other (OTH) 1D +9.0
Suffolk University08-20 – 08-23500 LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 41; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 10R +4.4
Emerson College08-02 – 08-04712 LVAshley Hinson (R) 48; Josh Turek (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 6R +3.2
Siena College06-15 – 06-27600 LVAshley Hinson (R) 48; Josh Turek (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 5R +2.1
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research06-23 – 06-271,003 RVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 4D +4.2
Cygnal(R)06-16 – 06-19600 LVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 10R +2.2
Global Strategy Group(D)06-08 – 06-111,000 LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 8D +2.2
Public Policy Polling(D)06-03 – 06-04557 RVAshley Hinson (R) 46; Josh Turek (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 7Even
Echelon Insights(R)04-03 – 04-09377 LVAshley Hinson (R) 45; Josh Turek (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 9D +1.1
GQR(D)03-10 – 03-161,200 LVAshley Hinson (R) 47; Josh Turek (D) 43; Undecided (UND) 11R +4.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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