Skip to content
WhoDonated
Contact

2026 Senate · Republican incumbent · Priority race

Florida U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$14M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

12

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$10M

Democratic itemized total

$3.3M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

16%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 43% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

52%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 59% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +6.5±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

43.7D·49.9R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

25polls

Last fieldwork October 27, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
St. Pete Polls10-25 – 10-27916 LVAshley Moody (R) 49; Angie Nixon (D) 45; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4R +4.1
ActiVote10-17 – 10-27400 LVAshley Moody (R) 53; Angie Nixon (D) 47R +6.0
Siena College10-19 – 10-25813 LVAshley Moody (R) 50; Angie Nixon (D) 44; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 5R +6.4
Echelon Insights10-16 – 10-23515 LVAshley Moody (R) 51; Angie Nixon (D) 43; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3R +8.2
RedBox Research10-20 – 10-234,832 LVAshley Moody (R) 50; Angie Nixon (D) 43; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4R +7.3
Workbench Strategy(D)10-18 – 10-22800 LVAshley Moody (R) 49; Angie Nixon (D) 47R +2.1
co/efficient(R)10-18 – 10-201,014 LVAshley Moody (R) 48; Angie Nixon (D) 40; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 11R +8.9
University of North Florida10-12 – 10-191,414 LVAshley Moody (R) 49; Angie Nixon (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 6R +4.3
Univision / YouGov10-02 – 10-15825 RVAshley Moody (R) 51; Angie Nixon (D) 42; Undecided (UND) 7R +9.7
ActiVote09-27 – 10-15400 LVAshley Moody (R) 53; Angie Nixon (D) 47R +6.0
MDW Communications10-04 – 10-102,351 LVAshley Moody (R) 48; Angie Nixon (D) 42; Undecided (UND) 10R +6.7
Stetson University10-01 – 10-09716 LVAshley Moody (R) 52; Angie Nixon (D) 41; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6R +11.6
St. Pete Polls10-05 – 10-07836 LVAshley Moody (R) 47; Angie Nixon (D) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6R +2.1
YouGov09-28 – 10-053,813 LVAshley Moody (R) 49; Angie Nixon (D) 44; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5R +5.3
James Madison Institute(D)09-28 – 10-041,171 LVAshley Moody (R) 52; Angie Nixon (D) 42; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4R +10.4
Mason-Dixon09-28 – 10-01625 LVAshley Moody (R) 50; Angie Nixon (D) 40; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 8R +10.9
Change Research(R)09-25 – 09-271,063 LVAshley Moody (R) 48; Angie Nixon (D) 47; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5R +1.0
InsiderAdvantage(R)09-20 – 09-21600 LVAshley Moody (R) 49; Angie Nixon (D) 42; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7R +7.5
Stetson University09-14 – 09-21830 LVAshley Moody (R) 51; Angie Nixon (D) 40; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 5R +11.7
St. Pete Polls09-15 – 09-17913 LVAshley Moody (R) 45; Angie Nixon (D) 45; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 7Even
Quantus Insights(R)09-08 – 09-10733 LVAshley Moody (R) 50; Angie Nixon (D) 43; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 4R +7.3
Change Research(D)09-07 – 09-091,107 LVAshley Moody (R) 47; Angie Nixon (D) 47; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 5Even
University of North Florida07-08 – 07-17848 LVAshley Moody (R) 50; Angie Nixon (D) 42; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 6R +8.5
Stetson University03-15 – 04-13848 LVAshley Moody (R) 51; Angie Nixon (D) 38; Undecided (UND) 11R +14.6
Emerson College03-29 – 03-311,125 LVAshley Moody (R) 47; Angie Nixon (D) 36; Undecided (UND) 16R +13.3

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

← All 2026 racesMethodologyCandidates