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2026 Senate · Republican incumbent · Priority race

Arkansas U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$4.0M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

5

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$1.4M

Democratic itemized total

$2.6M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

6%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 34% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

14%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 36% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +12.2±4.3

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

39.8D·51.6R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

6polls

Last fieldwork October 28, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
GrayHouse(R)10-27 – 10-28509 LVTom Cotton (R) 55; Hallie Shoffner (D) 39; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 2R +16.3
Hendrix College10-08 – 10-13709 LVTom Cotton (R) 50; Hallie Shoffner (D) 41; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 4R +9.4
GrayHouse09-30 – 10-04550 LVTom Cotton (R) 50; Hallie Shoffner (D) 39; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 7R +11.8
J.L. Partners08-14 – 08-18803 LVTom Cotton (R) 51; Hallie Shoffner (D) 35; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 11R +17.8
Hendrix College08-11 – 08-121,217 LVTom Cotton (R) 44; Hallie Shoffner (D) 47; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 6D +3.2
2040 Strategy Group(D)07-17 – 07-25586 LVTom Cotton (R) 46; Hallie Shoffner (D) 43; Undecided (UND) 11R +3.4

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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