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2026 Senate · Republican incumbent · Priority race

Alaska U.S. Senate

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$13M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

3

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$9.2M

Democratic itemized total

$3.5M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

16%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 43% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

83%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 76% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +1.6±2.8

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

45.1D·6.5R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

12polls

Last fieldwork September 24, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Trafalgar Group(R)09-22 – 09-241,079 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 47; Mary Peltola (D) 46; Dan J. Sullivan (R) 3; Gerald Heikes (R) 1; Undecided (UND) 4R +2.1
co/efficient(R)09-14 – 09-17799 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 48; Mary Peltola (D) 46; Dan J. Sullivan (R) 1; Gerald Heikes (R) 1; Undecided (UND) 4R +3.1
Rasmussen Reports(R)09-13 – 09-141,188 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 39; Mary Peltola (D) 39; Dan J. Sullivan (R) 7; Gerald Heikes (R) 6; Undecided (UND) 9R +6.6
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates09-08 – 09-11800 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 41; Mary Peltola (D) 46; Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4; Gerald Heikes (R) 3; Undecided (UND) 7D +2.1
Alaska Survey Research08-20 – 08-231,495 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 49; Mary Peltola (D) 51D +2.0
Alaska Survey Research08-02 – 08-051,371 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 49; Mary Peltola (D) 51D +2.0
Data for Progress(D)07-28 – 08-04605 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 41; Mary Peltola (D) 45; Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4; Gerald Heikes (R) 3; Other (OTH) 5D +1.0
Siena College06-15 – 06-29593 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 47; Mary Peltola (D) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 5R +2.1
Alaska Survey Research06-04 – 06-071,393 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 44; Mary Peltola (D) 49; Gerald Heikes (R) 4; Other (OTH) 3D +1.0
Alaska Survey Research05-14 – 05-171,401 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 44; Mary Peltola (D) 48; Gerald Heikes (R) 3; Other (OTH) 5D +1.0
Alaska Survey Research04-16 – 04-191,946 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 43; Mary Peltola (D) 49; Other (OTH) 8D +6.0
Alaska Survey Research03-19 – 03-221,590 LVDan S. Sullivan (R) 44; Mary Peltola (D) 49; Other (OTH) 7D +5.0

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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