Skip to content
WhoDonated
Contact

2026 House · Republican incumbent

Virginia 1st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$3.6M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

12

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$2.2M

Democratic itemized total

$1.3M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

16%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 44% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

27%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 46% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +1.3±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

47.6D·46.4R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

4polls

Last fieldwork October 25, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
DCCC Targeting Team(D)10-24 – 10-25478 LVRob Wittman (R) 47; Shannon Taylor (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 5D +1.1
Public Policy Polling(D)10-21 – 10-22570 LVRob Wittman (R) 46; Shannon Taylor (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 7D +1.1
The Washington Post(R)09-23 – 09-28609 LVRob Wittman (R) 46; Shannon Taylor (D) 50; Other (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 3D +4.1
DCCC Targeting Team(D)09-15 – 09-17519 LVRob Wittman (R) 47; Shannon Taylor (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 7R +1.1

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

← All 2026 racesMethodologyCandidates