2026 House · Open seat

Texas 9th U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$2.4M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$189K

Democratic itemized total

$2.2M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

100%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 100% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

4%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 19% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +2.9±3.8

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

45.2D·47.9R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

3polls

Last fieldwork October 22, 2026

Polls in this average

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Topline	Margin
DCCC	10-20 – 10-22	490 LV	Leticia Gutierrez (D) 47; Alex Mealer (R) 48; Undecided (UND) 5	R +1.1
University of Houston / Texas Southern University	10-03 – 10-07	677 LV	Leticia Gutierrez (D) 42; Alex Mealer (R) 48; Undecided (UND) 10	R +6.7
Public Policy Polling	09-18 – 09-19	— —	Leticia Gutierrez (D) 39; Alex Mealer (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 16	R +7.1

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

RepublicanREP · Challenger
Alexandra Mealer
$1.6M
Donors
540
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
94%
PAC $
$336K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Briscoe Rowell Cain III
$335K
Donors
261
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
97%
PAC $
$42K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
R. Todd Ivey
$139K
Donors
139
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
94%
PAC $
$11K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Jaimy Blanco
$106K
Donors
72
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
20%
PAC $
$14K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Crystal Sarmiento
$62K
Donors
38
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
98%
PAC $
$1K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
Leticia Gutierrez
$44K
Donors
51
Small-$ share
4%
In-state
94%
PAC $
$5K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Dan Mims
$38K
Donors
36
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Steve Stockman
$12K
Donors
4
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
0%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Challenger
Dwayne Bradley Stovall
$8K
Donors
8
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Challenger
James Buford
$6K
Donors
4
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
Independent or third partyIND · Challenger
Roy Morales
$1K
Donors
1
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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