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2026 House · Republican incumbent

Ohio 10th U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$610K

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

4

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$290K

Democratic itemized total

$320K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

12%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 40% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

24%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 44% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +3.1±1.6

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

47.0D·44.0R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

3polls

Last fieldwork October 13, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
DCCC(D)10-12 – 10-13535 LVMike Turner (R) 44; Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 47; Thomas McMasters (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 5D +3.2
Global Strategy Group(D)07-20 – 07-23700 LVMike Turner (R) 49; Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 42; Undecided (UND) 9R +7.7
FM3 Research(D)07-06 – 07-12535 LVMike Turner (R) 48; Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 41; Undecided (UND) 11R +7.9

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built October 31, 2026; poll dataset as of October 29, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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