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2026 House · Open seat

New York 21st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$3.5M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

6

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$2.8M

Democratic itemized total

$707K

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

39%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 38% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

13%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 35% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

R +0.5±4.1

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

44.7D·45.1R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

8polls

Last fieldwork October 13, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Public Policy Polling(D)10-12 – 10-13613 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 46; Blake Gendebien (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 10R +2.2
Siena College(D)09-30 – 10-06496 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 42; Blake Gendebien (D) 46; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 7D +4.3
Impact Research(D)09-29 – 10-04500 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 48; Blake Gendebien (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 7R +3.2
Public Policy Polling(D)09-09 – 09-10557 RVAnthony Constantino (R) 48; Blake Gendebien (D) 43; Undecided (UND) 9R +5.5
Impact Research(D)08-30 – 09-02500 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 47; Blake Gendebien (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 9R +3.3
J.L. Partners08-15 – 08-17500 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 50; Blake Gendebien (D) 40; Undecided (UND) 10R +11.1
SurveyUSA08-04 – 08-08612 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 39; Blake Gendebien (D) 43; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 13D +4.6
Impact Research(D)05-26 – 05-31500 LVAnthony Constantino (R) 45; Blake Gendebien (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 11R +1.1

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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