2026 House · Democratic incumbent

New Hampshire 1st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$6.7M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$5.6M

Democratic itemized total

$1.2M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

96%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 54% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

85%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 78% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +4.5±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

46.0D·42.0R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

2polls

Last fieldwork October 20, 2026

Polls in this average

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Topline	Margin
Saint Anselm College	10-19 – 10-20	861 LV	Stefany Shaheen (D) 46; Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 12	D +4.5
University of New Hampshire	09-17 – 09-21	711 LV	Stefany Shaheen (D) 46; Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 42; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 11	D +4.5

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Maura Corby Sullivan
$2.8M
Donors
1,902
Small-$ share
2%
In-state
11%
PAC $
$74K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Stefany Shaheen
$1.9M
Donors
1,510
Small-$ share
5%
In-state
42%
PAC $
$117K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Anthony Dilorenzo
$600K
Donors
285
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
75%
PAC $
$65K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Christian Urrutia
$418K
Donors
729
Small-$ share
10%
In-state
14%
PAC $
$1K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Hollie T Noveletsky
$410K
Donors
264
Small-$ share
1%
In-state
64%
PAC $
$19K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Carleigh Beriont
$404K
Donors
479
Small-$ share
14%
In-state
32%
PAC $
$1K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Sarah Chadzynski
$80K
Donors
92
Small-$ share
6%
In-state
18%
PAC $
$2K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Melissa Bailey
$71K
Donors
95
Small-$ share
2%
In-state
53%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Brian Cole
$39K
Donors
41
Small-$ share
3%
In-state
91%
PAC $
$1K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Elizabeth Girard
$33K
Donors
21
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
10%
PAC $
$1K
Follow the money →
DemocraticDEM · Open seat
Heath Howard
$26K
Donors
66
Small-$ share
11%
In-state
65%
PAC $
$12K
Follow the money →
RepublicanREP · Open seat
Chris Bright
$250
Donors
4
Small-$ share
0%
In-state
100%
PAC $
$0
Follow the money →

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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