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2026 House · Democratic incumbent

North Carolina 1st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$3.1M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

6

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$1.8M

Democratic itemized total

$1.3M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

94%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 51% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

44%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 55% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +2.8±5.1

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

45.6D·43.0R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

7polls

Last fieldwork October 23, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
RedBox Research(D)10-20 – 10-231,468 LVDon Davis (D) 45; Laurie Buckhout (R) 44; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 5D +1.1
co/efficient10-06 – 10-08623 LVDon Davis (D) 42; Laurie Buckhout (R) 43; Tom Bailey (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 13R +1.1
Neighborhood Research10-01 – 10-06303 LVDon Davis (D) 51; Laurie Buckhout (R) 41; Undecided (UND) 8D +10.9
GQR(R)09-29 – 10-04500 LVDon Davis (D) 47; Laurie Buckhout (R) 39; Tom Bailey (OTH) 8; Undecided (UND) 6D +8.5
GBAO(D)09-08 – 09-11500 LVDon Davis (D) 50; Laurie Buckhout (R) 43; Undecided (UND) 7D +7.5
GQR(D)06-22 – 06-28500 LVDon Davis (D) 45; Laurie Buckhout (R) 41; Tom Bailey (L) 8; Undecided (UND) 6D +4.3
co/efficient(R)04-25 – 04-29842 LVDon Davis (D) 41; Laurie Buckhout (R) 41; Undecided (UND) 18Even

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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