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2026 House · Open seat

Montana 1st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$4.0M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

8

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$1.5M

Democratic itemized total

$2.6M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

61%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 46% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

55%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 60% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +5.5±8.1

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

47.7D·43.0R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

10polls

Last fieldwork October 23, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
RedBox Research(D)10-20 – 10-23754 LVAaron Flint (R) 48; Sam Forstag (D) 46; Nick Sheedy (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4R +2.1
Montana State University Billings10-05 – 10-21287 AdultsAaron Flint (R) 32; Sam Forstag (D) 49; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 15D +20.0
Emerson College10-12 – 10-14329 LVAaron Flint (R) 46; Sam Forstag (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 4D +4.2
Public Policy Polling(D)10-12 – 10-14541 LVAaron Flint (R) 45; Sam Forstag (D) 48; Undecided (UND) 7D +3.2
American Pulse Research & Polling09-19 – 09-24314 LVAaron Flint (R) 46; Sam Forstag (D) 45; Nick Sheedy (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 3R +1.0
Impact Research(D)09-20 – 09-23500 LVAaron Flint (R) 44; Sam Forstag (D) 47; Nick Sheedy (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7D +3.2
Public Policy Polling(D)09-09 – 09-10536 RVAaron Flint (R) 43; Sam Forstag (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 12D +2.3
Rutgers-Eagleton08-27 – 09-07375 RVAaron Flint (R) 42; Sam Forstag (D) 41; Nick Sheedy (L) 5; Undecided (UND) 11R +1.1
Impact Research(D)06-22 – 06-25500 LVAaron Flint (R) 44; Sam Forstag (D) 44; Nick Sheedy (L) 5; Undecided (UND) 7Even
Upswing Research(D)04-30 – 05-05401 LVAaron Flint (R) 48; Sam Forstag (D) 43; Undecided (UND) 9R +5.5

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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