Skip to content
WhoDonated
Contact

2026 House · Open seat

Maine 2nd U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$4.7M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

6

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$3.5M

Democratic itemized total

$1.2M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

72%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 50% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

67%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 66% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +4.1±2.1

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

50.2D·46.3R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

7polls

Last fieldwork October 14, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Tulchin Research(D)10-12 – 10-14500 LVMatthew Dunlap (D) 50; Paul LePage (R) 46; Undecided (UND) 4D +4.2
Tulchin Research(R)09-27 – 09-30500 LVMatthew Dunlap (D) 50; Paul LePage (R) 48; Undecided (UND) 2D +2.0
University of New Hampshire09-17 – 09-21627 LVMatt Dunlap (D) 51; Paul LePage (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 5D +6.2
Impact Research(D)09-08 – 09-12500 LVMatt Dunlap (D) 49; Paul LePage (R) 49; Undecided (UND) 2Even
DCCC Targeting Team(D)08-11 – 08-13621 LVMatt Dunlap (D) 48; Paul LePage (R) 49; Undecided (UND) 3R +1.0
Tulchin Research(D)07-11 – 07-16600 LVMatt Dunlap (D) 49; Paul LePage (R) 48; Undecided (UND) 3D +1.0
co/efficient(R)04-26 – 04-28918 LVMatt Dunlap (D) 40; Paul LePage (R) 50; Undecided (UND) 10R +11.1

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

← All 2026 racesMethodologyCandidates