Florida 14th U.S. House
Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.
Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race
Candidates with FEC totals in our directory
Democratic itemized total
Republican itemized total
Who is raising more right now
Money vs. market
Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.
97%Dem. win signal
Prior lean about 58% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.
64%Dem. win signal
Democratic share of two-party receipts is 64% in the FEC cycle totals we score.
Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.
WhoDonated poll average
A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.
D +2.9±3.1
Dem. minus Rep., weighted points
46.8D·44.2R
Weighted mean of published shares
3polls
Last fieldwork October 23, 2026
Polls in this average
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Topline | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research | 10-20 – 10-23 | 708 LV | Kathy Castor (D) 46; Mike Beltran (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 10 | D +1.1 |
| Emerson College | 10-12 – 10-14 | 315 LV | Kathy Castor (D) 48; Mike Beltran (R) 43; Undecided (UND) 9 | D +5.5 |
| St. Pete Polls | 07-14 – 07-15 | 469 LV | Kathy Castor (D) 46; Mike Beltran (R) 38; Undecided (UND) 16 | D +9.5 |
Candidates
Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.
$1.2M
- 1,007
- 4%
- 53%
- $1.1M
$175K
- 142
- 0%
- 65%
- $16K
- 42
- 0%
- 50%
- $2K
$97K
- 81
- 0%
- 72%
- $26K
$83K
- 73
- 2%
- 93%
- $0
$79K
- 43
- 0%
- 94%
- $11K
$19K
- 6
- 0%
- 59%
- $0
$11K
- 14
- 0%
- 12%
- $0
- 3
- 0%
- 33%
- $0
- 4
- 0%
- 53%
- $0
- 6
- 3%
- 100%
- $0
- 2
- 44%
- 56%
- $0