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2026 House · Open seat · Priority race

Arizona 1st U.S. House

Candidate fundraising side by side, plus separate fundamentals, money, and polling-average signals. We do not publish a single fused win percentage.

$6.4M

Itemized 2026 dollars across candidates in this race

14

Candidates with FEC totals in our directory

$4.3M

Democratic itemized total

$2.1M

Republican itemized total

01 / Fundraising

Who is raising more right now

Source · Sum of itemized individual contributions attributed to candidates in this seat, data through October 14, 2026.

Money vs. market

Two separate indicators — not a single WhoDonated win percentage. Fundamentals reflect seat lean and incumbency; the money signal reflects who has raised more in public FEC filings so far this cycle.

Fundamentals

67%Dem. win signal

Prior lean about 48% Democratic two-party share, plus incumbency and the national midterm environment.

Money signal

54%Dem. win signal

Democratic share of two-party receipts is 60% in the FEC cycle totals we score.

Polling averages appear in their own section below — never fused into these meters. Prediction-market odds appear only after we have written permission. Kalshi is not shown.

Source · Model trained on 2018–2024 races. Signals as of 2026-10-28. How we score races.

03 / Polling average

WhoDonated poll average

A transparent weighted average of public Main-ballot polls for this seat. It is a third, separate signal — not blended with fundraising or fundamentals into a win percentage.

Average margin

D +4.8±1.5

Dem. minus Rep., weighted points

Toplines

48.8D·44.3R

Weighted mean of published shares

Coverage

3polls

Last fieldwork October 28, 2026

Polls in this average

PollsterDatesSampleToplineMargin
Keating Research10-26 – 10-28500 LVAmish Shah (D) 49; Jay Feely (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 6D +4.3
RedBox Research(D)10-20 – 10-23851 LVJay Feely (R) 43; Amish Shah (D) 49; Other (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 2D +6.2
FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs(D)2026-10-01400 LVJay Feely (R) 42; Amish Shah (D) 44; Undecided (UND) 14D +2.3

Source · Poll data: Polling Forecast (www.pollingforecast.com), CC BY 4.0. Individual poll figures belong to the named pollsters; Wikipedia-sourced rows are CC BY-SA 4.0. Built November 1, 2026; poll dataset as of October 30, 2026. Full method · Download JSON.

Candidates

Side-by-side fundraising from itemized FEC individual contributions. Totals are committee receipts attributed to each candidate in our directory — open a profile for employers, geography and gift sizes.

Showing the top 12 of 14 candidates by itemized dollars. Browse the full field on the Candidates tab.

Source · FEC itemized individual contributions, data through October 14, 2026. Public record for research and journalism.

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